Is Stumble Guys beating Fall Guys at its own game?


Stumble Guys just passed $100m in IAP earnings after platform fees, and has over 320m downloads on mobile alone, according to Appmagic data.

And it could be earning as much as $2m a day from ad revenue, says game economist Phillip Black. “IAP on mobile is just the start for Stumble Guys,” he tells us.

“Scopely’s long-run ad investments have paid off. With a potential high of 50m DAU across PC and mobile, a 3-cent ad ARPDAU adds as much as $1-2M per day in platform-tax-free revenue.”

Fall Guys was a huge hit for Mediatonic when it arrived in 2020 on PS+ and PC. But the game’s drop-off since shows the UK studio just wasn’t ready for live service game development, says Black. “Content is king, and players showed no mercy, with the game’s Steam numbers falling from a high of 172K down 99% to a low 17k.”

“After two years of development, from 2020 to 2022, Mediatonic managed only a meagre 18 new levels per year. The recently announced UGC mode and 50 new first-party levels are too little too late; Stumble Guys beat Fall Guys at its own game.”

Skipping mobile has been a major blunder, Black continues. “For reasons still unclear to this author, and despite being built in Unity, Fall Guys does not have a mobile version. In the wake of Roblox, Fortnite, and Call of Duty Mobile, it was clear virtual dual analog stick control schemes were viable for Western players making a literal mobile port viable.”

“Kitka Games, a team of no more than seven, conceived, developed and launched Stumble Guys over the same period Mediatonic shipped a measly 13 new levels.”

“Kitka built compelling live ops design with tournaments providing fresh experiences to players daily. Scopely, Stumble Guys’ eventual buyer, could not be more suited to understanding these pipelines. And when you’ve mastered the pipeline, you can bend it; Scopely pushed the envelope playing with bold new level designs, vehicle and Hot Wheels integration and now FPS with Nerf.”

“Cosmetics are not viable for mobile or most HD games,” adds Black. “But developers mistake the alternative as power progression, but it wasn’t in the case of Stumble Guys. The big Scopely success story was the addition of ads on top of cosmetics.”

Scopely acquired Stumble Guys from original developer Kitka Games in September 2022, and has since moved some of its top talent onto the game.

Scopely veteran and product VP Jake Bales is now game director, and in January Scopely hired Naz Amarchi-Cuevas as SVP and Stumble Guys general manager.

She spent nearly six years at Sybo, first as head of licensing and brand marketing and later as COO. Amarchi-Cuevas also led Rovio’s licensing efforts between 2012-2016.

Amarchi-Cuevas’ experience has been evident in the Stumble Guys crossovers that have been rolling out in the last few months, including deals with the NFL, Hot Wheels, Ubisoft’s Rabbids characters and Nerf.